WHAT NEXT?
SUCHIT BAJPAI; LUCKNOW
Voters in 150 constituencies have already exercised their votes during the first two phases of polling. After Western Uttar Pradesh, the focus now has shifted to the historically and politically significant region of Awadh and Purvanchal (eastern Uttar Pradesh). These two densely populated regions, lying on the fertile Indo-Gangetic plains, have 234 seats in these regions. The political significance should be gauged by the fact that eight of the 15 Prime Ministers, India has had, were elected from these regions.
Of the 109 constituencies that recorded a low margin
of victory in the 2012 elections, 61 were situated in Awadh and Purvanchal.
That amounts to one-fourth of the total seats in the region. Such a high
percentage of narrow-margin victories point out to closely fought electoral battles in the two
politically crucial regions of the state.
However, of the 89 Purvanchal seats which go to polls
in the final two phases, only 16 were won narrowly in the 2012 elections.
This means that the next three phases of Assembly
election taking place in the Awadh region would cover 45 seats that had been
won by a margin of less than three percent votes in 2012.
The last election’s data throws some interesting bits
of information.
Take for instance, the Farrukhabad constituency, which
is located in the Awadh region. The constituency, which votes on Sunday,
witnessed an interesting contest last time, when an Independent candidate Vijay
Singh trounced BJP’s Major Suneel Dutt Dwivedi by a nerve-wrecking margin of
just 147 votes.
In fact, Singh was only one of the two Independents
candidates who managed to scrap through to a win – the other instance was in
the Sayadraja constituency which goes to polls on 8 March.
Similarly, the Ghazipur constituency, which comes
under Purvanchal, recorded a narrow victory in 2012 polls.
Last election, the
constituency – it goes to poll in the final phase – witnessed a SP versus BSP
battle that went down to the wire. Ultimately, the SP candidate Vijay Kumar
Mishra defeated his nearest BSP rival Raj Kumar by a margin of 241 votes.
Mishra went on to be a minister in the Akhilesh Yadav government before joining the BJP on 16 February.
While Awadh and Purvanchal hog the limelight in the
electoral battlefield of Uttar Pradesh, the impoverished and politically
insignificant Bundelkhand is often ignored.
Bundelkhand – the
forgotten backwaters of Uttar Pradesh
The region, which has been
facing severe drought problems since many years, saw the BSP
doing better than the rest as it secured seven out of 19 seats. Six seats in
the region were won narrowly – the BSP winning four while the SP emerging
victorious in the remaining two. However, with just 19 seats, Bundelkhand may
play no major role in determining Uttar Pradesh's political destiny.
The scenario looks
different this time
The race to Lucknow seems to be much more interesting
this election. Unlike 2012, this time around the SP has joined hands with the
Congress, while BJP now looks a much more formidable opponent after its
astonishing victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. On the other hand, BSP seems
to be on the backfoot after its debacle in the Lok Sabha polls.
The ruling party is banking on its young chief
minister Akhilesh Yadav’s development image to ride back to power – a factor
which may have encouraged Rahul Gandhi to tie up with his party. On the other
hand, the BJP in its bid to form its first government since 1997 is seeking to
reap electoral benefits from the note ban saga.
Notably, for the first time
since 2007, the party ruling the Centre is in serious contention to rule Uttar
Pradesh. If one looks at the opinion polls that have come out so far, it has been
either SP-Congress or BJP at the pole position. Every pollster
has relegated BSP to the third place.
However, history has been
witness to many opinion polls going totally wrong (read Bihar pre-poll surveys).
What if BSP rises in it votes
percentage, the narrow margin victories may reduce to the loss, which had won. One might never know if
Mayawati could spring a surprise.
The results, expected on 11 March, can shape the
political destiny of not just Uttar Pradesh but also India. It is then we will
know whether the ‘elephant’ is able to trump the ‘cycle’ or if the ‘lotus’ will
bloom after two decades. And it is worth remembering that the road to New Delhi
passes through Lucknow.
