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Monday, November 25, 2019

India Lost a Big Chance of Economic Growth: Dr Manmohan Singh

By on Monday, November 25, 2019


The former Prime Minister has written an article on the current economic scenario in renowned news paper last week. The writes-up was in limelight among the people. The only things of this article had been in discussion which was targeting PM Modi directly. Or to say, “ the former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s attack on Modi government or Manmohan Singh premonished Modi government that the economy cannot run by PR or headlines”. However Manmohan Singh had said in this writes up that his statement in this article should not be taken as of mere leader of opposition because the talk is based only like a student of economics and as a citizen of India.
Manmohan Singh is former prime minister and the senior leader of congress party, in such condition the article shall have naturally a discussion of political side, but his write up do have an economic importance too.
The conclusion of the article can be analysed in this way point wise.
Losing confidence on every step
Mr Singh said in his write up that “the unemployment in the country is at its maximum during the last 45 years of any tenure. the GDP growth is the lowest since last 15 years. The banks NPA is at its highest. The electricity production is lowest in the last 15 years and the consumption rate is the lowest of last four decades”.  He adds that All the data tell just the condition of economy, but the government’s working system is in the origin of economic problem. “The economic condition of a country shows the image of its social position too; and how the relation floats for the economic growth between the society and the institutions, he said,      is an important factor, but this government has lost its credence for this purpose among the people. Many entrepreneurs have told me that they are fearsome of government agencies.”
Manmohan ratifies that the atmosphere of fear and doubt is a constant element of Modi government working system. All the leads to this system are working under the fear, which could have been helpful to the growth of economy in the absence of fear. He gives example that the bankers are afraid of giving the loans lest they to be the target, and the entrepreneurs’ investing are afraid of government agencies.
Write-up says that the situation is so that media, regulatory agencies, investigative agencies all are constantly losing their confidence among the people, and they fear if they shall be implicated intentionally for the tax payment; where will they go for relief then. This factor is affecting entrepreneur and the businessmen because they are not in mood to take any risk. Such prevailed behavior on large is damaging the economic growth.
Even he adds in his article that from the famous economist, Adam Smith, upto now all the economists agree that the mutual confidence and the strong social networking both are the important factor the economic growth, but the running government is fail on the both fronts. The social networking’s cracks and the lacks of mutual confidence are one of the big reasons to the current economic crises.

Contemplating all the projects and the schemes of former governments doubtful

The running government contemplates doubtful all the policies of the former governments. He writes that Narendra Modi government feels or it tries to show that the every policies of the former governments had some foul intention. Such as the loans were given in the tenure of former governments are contemplated doubtful and were to benefit somebody's.He thinks that this government resort the way doubt on every issues and then itself displays as the protector that it is going to correct every former action taken.
Manmohan accepts that the result of these is that the government has adopted the attitude way like an ideal police on policy matter, which emerged a suicidal step like demonetization.

According to Manmohan Singh, contemplating to everybody doubtful and repeatedly speaking theory of ‘Good Governance Vs Bad Governance’ are not correct for economic health. The criticism of policy matter of every former governments breaks the continuity of policies which eventually affects over the economic health.
Policy makers are confused to speak  the truth
Manmohan Singh accepts that the established intention to term the Modi government’s administration better than others is affecting all the system of executive body. The article is indicating that instead of knowing reality by hearing the government’s officials and the policy makers the government expects from all the system that the policies of this government they tell better  and clean than former governments.
The analysis of Manmohan’s write-up tells that the atmosphere in the government is so that the gentlemen connected to the policy making evade speaking the truth. Either they keep silence on several issues or they follow the path of government.
If we see apart from the article, it appears rather correct. The well known economists during the two tenure of modi government did not agreed upon with the Modi government. Arvind Pangadhiya and Arvind Subramanium like economists after leaving their post had criticized the Modi government on several issues. Moreover  Raghuram Rajan, Urjit Patel, Viral Acharya like economists whenever warned the modi government, they faced the BJP leaders and the ministers' slipshod speaking. These leaders were never forbidden so in this way the working with the government Policy makers are jitter to speak the truth.
‘Stagflation’-- or so to say declining consumption; yet the price hike is going up!

Manmohan Singh’s article emphasis over the working system of government, the economic aspects of social establishment and the policy vision, but he talks purely on the issue of dearness. He thinks that the consumption is stagnant and the unemployment is constantly rising both conditions are worth of reviewing in the wake of retail price hike. He told the constant price hike in edible items are endangering situation. He use the economic word for this purpose ‘stagflation’. The stagflation is the situation when there is no increase in demands; the retail price hike is going up.
 According to Manmohan Singh, if an economy is under the trap of stagflation, it cannot overcome easily from this crisis.
However, it also has been metioned in this article that there is no such situation in India, but there is the need to enhance the consumption by the monetary policy and by social policy the private investment should be promoted. The meaning of social policy is that they should be taken in confidence all the sharing men who are responsible for the economy. The fear and the doubt shall be away then the economy shall accelerate.
India lost a big chance of economic growth
Manmohan says that the slowdown in economy is the self-called recession. He accepts that the India had big chance for the slowdown in china’s economy that it could accelerate its economy well. He says that if the government had overcome from the fearsome atmosphere and would have shown the policy alertness, India had a chance to enhance its exports.
Dr Singh accepts that the slowdown in china’s economy, slump in price of crude oil and majority mandate in parliament—all had provided such a chance to the government which comes once after generations. Incase the chance could have been taken seriously, there were causes to create  employment at large scale and it could reach at the doorstep of new economic reform. Dr Singh giving the advice to the PM says that the entrepreneurs and the businessmen should be taken in confidence taking out them from the fear and doubt. Moreover there is need to make a confidence among the society because all these things shall  bring out india from the economic slowdown.
 Writer is the former Prime Minister of India and matter has been translated and compiled by Editor-in-Chief 'THE BUNT LINE'